Economics of Ceasefire

Peace has been an elusive dream for this country and its people for more than 60 years. Ethnic armed groups have been waging war against the central government and, sometimes, among themselves for a variety of reasons.

Ceasefire, as a prelude to political dialogue, has had its ups and downs all throughout the current history. Behind all these ceasefire talks and peace negotiation is the economics of conflict.

It sounds highly controversial that business concessions and economic development are, and should be, part of the peace negotiations. Some believe that will compromise the core question of political and national identity issues. The ugly truth is there is the economic equation behind all peace talks.

Anyway, it is important to recognize that major grievances that fuel conflict are related to economics, namely negative impacts development on local ethnic people and competition over control of economic resources between each ethnic armed group and the central government.
Both sides — the government and the ethnic armed groups — themselves realize that fighting for the rights the people cannot avoid the question of economics as money and power are inextricably enter-twined.

While many are worried that business is taking precedence over politics in the peace negotiations, the demands of ethnic armed groups for business concessions, development and fair distribution of natural resources are a reminder that ethnic leaders recognise that economic power and political power are two sides of the same coin.

Some pessimists see the business concessions to be a ploy by the central government to turn ethnic leaders into ‘mini-cronies’. It may be true or it may not be true, but that leads us believe that economics is both a driver and a solution to the conflicts in Myanmar.

Unfair distribution of resources and resource revenues, negative impacts of mega projects and high level of poverty in ethnic areas have led to violence and conflicts, we have witnessed.

Ceasefire talks are getting more and more serious these days, but without taking into considerations the economics of conflict in political dialogues, ceasefires may come and go but peace would still be an elusive dream for all of us.

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